Labor’s suicide pact

When the smoke clears from Labor's civil war and the guns die down, it's hard to see anyone emerging as a winner.

The plain truth is that the voters hate Julia Gillard with a passion, and at least half the Labor Party—including almost all the current cabinet—hates Kevin Rudd.

So a win for Gillard will virtually guarantee that Labor is destroyed at the ballot box. And a win for Rudd will see the party torn apart by vicious internal strife.

A bloody draw will allow both sides to withdraw and prepare for a second battle.

Whatever happens, it's a zero-sum game.

And just in case there was any doubt about that, Gillard's numbers man, Stephen Conroy went on Channel 9 this morning to tell the world that Kevin Rudd had, "contempt for the cabinet, contempt for cabinet members, contempt for the caucus, contempt for the parliament. And ultimately what brought him down a year or two ago was the Australian public realised he had contempt for them as well." 

Now we admit it's unlikely, but Kev might be leader next week, next month, or next year. So come on Stephen, don't hold back, say what you really think.

Also surfing the airwaves this morning was Treasurer Wayne Swan, who went to school with Rudd at Nambour High, but has long been part of the dominant Queensland faction led by big boss Bill Ludwig (our No. 4 political fixer). Swan told ABC Radio that Rudd was "deeply flawed" with "great weaknesses".

But his statement last night took the character assassination a great deal further.

"The party has given Kevin Rudd all the opportunities in the world and he wasted them with his dysfunctional decision making and his deeply demeaning attitude towards other people including our caucus colleagues," said Swan. "He sought to tear down the 2010 campaign, deliberately risking an Abbott Prime Ministership, and now he undermines the Government at every turn." 

Earlier this week, Simon Crean was out there accusing Rudd of disloyalty and destabilising the government, and adding, "For all the time that he has been trying to say that he is different, a different Kevin, a new Kevin, all he does is reinforce the old Kevin". 

This morning, Crean was on radio effectively calling Rudd "delusional", "relentless", "manipulative" and "a prima donna".

And then, of course, there was Steve Gibbons, MP for Bendigo, a couple of days ago, describing Rudd (again) as a "prima donna" and his leadership as "chaotic and deeply offensive". Gibbons also tweeted that Australia's beloved former prime minister was a "psychopath with a giant ego". 

Just think how useful these references will be to Tony Abbott and the Coalition when the next election comes round, if Rudd manages to get himself back as leader.

And no doubt more Labor MPs will be lining up to scorch the earth—ensuring Labor can't win with Rudd either—in the hours and days to come.

In the meantime, the voters' still want Kevin back. A snap poll in the Sydney Morning Herald this morning has 59% of respondents opting for Rudd as ALP leader and just 15% going for Gillard, who gets soundly beaten into third place by "someone else", ie anyone except her. 

The latest Newspoll, conducted two weekends ago, shows roughly twice as many voters disapprove of Gillard as approve of her performance; she also trails Abbott 37:40 for preferred prime minister; and Labor lags the Coalition by 45:55 on the two-party preferred vote, which would see roughly a quarter of the current crop of Labor MPs losing their seats. 

And that's before Labor loses even more support as voters flee this civil war.